How has Jeremy Corbyn affected polls for Scotland in 2016?

The answer is ‘not much’.

scotlandprediction16

There’s a few things to note. Corbyn’s initial effect is pretty non-existent. Labour’s constituency MSP’s are wiped out, and they’re consigned to picking up MSP’s from the list. Now it might be a case in a few months once Corbyn has bedded in that things change, but tonight Labour voted against devolving trade union law to Scotland so it seems business is going to be carrying on as usual for Scotland.

So those Corbyn supporters in England hoping waving Jeremy Corbyn in front of people in Scotland is going to swing people back should realise politics has moved on from just protecting the Union and hoping the past is a place that we can return to.

As I’ve said in previous blogs, Corbyn is essential for the people of England to provide an actual opposition to the Tories, but his position to devolution across the UK is outdated and just totally out of skew with the majority of people not just in Scotland, but across the UK. We’ve known that Corbyn is a Unionist for some time, but I find it odd that Corbyn who is so much for democracy and self-determination finds it so easy to deny it to the people of Scotland.

I hope he changes his opinions, and these polls should make grim reading for Labour, but it’s 2015. Things have moved on and the Union is broken and doesn’t work so denying further devolution to Scotland or a federal solution isn’t going to gain Labour votes in Scotland.

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