The Tory cabinet has agreed a draft withdrawal from the EU, so basically the shit that’s been coming since June 2016 is about to hit big time. Assuming Theresa May survives the week, this deal won’t make it through the UK Parliament as Brexiters on the right will vote it down and Lexiters on the left will vote it down as they want a no deal scenario, while everyone else will be put in the position of voting for a deal which is wank. As we’re running out of time (Article 50’s clock is ticking) there’s only a handful of possibilities left, with the two most likely being…
1/ Theresa May clings onto power til the spring when we leave the EU with no deal and merry hell breaks out.
2/ A General Election is called. Labour get the most seats but not a majority which they would have if they dealt with the SNP/Greens/Plaid but the Bain Principle is too strong, so they’ll say they’ll extend negotiations but they can’t. So as Corbyn wants to leave, merry hell will break out with another election likely shortly after this.
There’s one glimmer of hope. The Scottish Parliament launched legal action to see if Article 50 can be reversed unilaterally. That decision rests in the hands of the ECJ and we’ll find out on the 27 November. In short; we’re fucked unless the ECJ rules we have a chance to reverse this lunacy. If we can even then that requires leading figures in the Tories and Labour to reverse their lifelong opposition to the EU.
So, there’s a glimmer but really, we’re fucked. Of course those political leaders on the right and left won’t be but hey, who thought they actually cared in the first place?