Scotland will not be independent in my lifetime

I hope I’m wrong but nearly nine years after the 2014 referendum where the Yes side lost I cannot for the life of me see how we progress towards independence of any kind. The independence movement has been shattered thanks to a multitude of reasons and the SNP, the party formed last century to gain Scottish independence, has done nothing to push us forward to independence in eight years, even though they’ve won multiple elections and mandates for it.

Every election since 2014 has been about ‘giving us the mandate to push for a referendum’ yet nothing really has happened. A vote for the SNP was supposed to stop Brexit happening to Scotland yet here we are, ripped out of the EU against the majority will and the Scottish government hasn’t done the one thing that might see us on a pathway back to the EU. We asked for a Section 30 from Westminster (the mechanism where we can hold a legal referendum) and that was refused. The plan was to have a de facto referendum in October this year yet that’s now not happening with the SNP now kicking it down the path to the next UK general election, or maybe the 2026 Scottish elections. I assume we’ll hear at some point of it being kicked further down the road to 2029 as an eternal carrot dangling in front of indy supporters who are convinced there’s a super secret plan for independence. The blunt fact is there isn’t.

And now we have an entirely manufactured dispute over the massively flawed Gender Recognition Reform bill which sees Westminster interfering with the decision of Holyrood, yet the Scottish government were warned of legal issues during the process of consultation and of massive, glaring holes in the bill. It is perfectly clear many of those who proposed the bill haven’t thought of the issues having closed off debate so we end up with things like this astonishing car crash of an interview with Maggie Chapman (who is an elected official in Scotland taking about O Levels which don’t exist in Scotland) of the Green Party.

So either the Scottish government went ahead with a bill not having scrutinised all the issues around it clearly and have spat out a mess of a bill which has thrown themselves in conflict with Westminster. Basically, incompetency has seen them in this conflict. The other option is they’ve cynically used this to manufacture a conflict with Westminster to push support for independence on an issue, which at best, is wildly divisive beyond the realms of independence in Scotland. Both options end up throwing the rights of women, children, disabled people and people with dysphoria under the bus.

Let’s not think the Tories are acting either in the best interest of vulnerable groups. They’ve been handed a potential tool to attack the Scottish Government and its competency with and they’re going to use it. From reading what lawyers are saying (as opposed to the reams of people who are just giving uninformed opinion on all sides) this is going to end up at the UK supreme court. We’re in the midst of the worst crisis for people for cost of living in a generation and that’s been put aside by many in order to push, or oppose, this.

We’re in a bad situation and I think this article by Robin McAlpine sums up my feelings. This paragraph hits home and hurts to agree with as at one point I believed the dream that we’d have a socially equal and fair leftish independent Scotland in my life. Instead we have a mechanism designed to keep a political class, and their activist backers, in power.

Last week’s announcement of ‘Green’ free ports by the Scottish and Westminster governments should have been the final straw. Selling out worker rights but sticking a ‘green’ label on it to Greenwash it should have been the sign that neoliberalism has fully taken hold in Scotland, and although the Scottish government does do good things to tinker round the edges, there are far too many underlying problems that can’t just be blamed on our restrictions we have placed on us as part of the UK. So I’ve resigned myself to the thought that independence as a reality is out our reach thanks not just to Westminster clinging onto us and our resources, but thanks to the main party who was dedicated to the cause putting that cause aside to concentrate on keeping, and expanding, power.

I want to be proven wrong. I want to be made to look stupid. On the basis of the last eight years I don’t think I will. There is no ‘secret masterplan’. There is no strategy for indy. There’s not even an effort to unite or even lead the independence movement. There’s just a never-ending promise that in the next set of elections, maybe, perhaps, the SNP will ask for a referendum which leads to to finish off by quoting McAlpine one more time.

He’s right. The SNP aren’t going to deliver independence now they’ve been hollowed out by careerists. Alba are a joke even if they’re committed to indy. Labour and the Lib Dems are controlled by London. The Greens have become a complete mess controlled by anti-intellectual/scientific zealots and the Tories can fuck off as far as a party can fuck off. This limbo might of course end after the current actions of Westminster, but as said, this is going to end up in courts so this will drag on for months, if not years. Long enough to keep things going til the Tories have to hold an election and are voted out for a weak and disappointing Labour government.

Please let me be wrong. I fear I’m not.